A couple of weekends ago, Ken Pomeroy, college basketball’s premier advanced stats guru widely known as tempo-free whose website, kenpom.com, is one of the highest used tools of many who cover and coach college basketball throughout the season, updated his website for the fast-approaching new college basketball season.
Last week, I decided to go on his site, (it is a $19.95 yearly subscription for unlimited, full access but you can access the front page of the site for free) and wanted to check out what Pomeroy’s numbers had to say on this season’s LIU Brooklyn men’s basketball team.
On LIU’s page as well as every team’s page on his site, you get a game-by-game score projection as well as win probability along with some tempo-free and regular statistical numbers like two-point and three-point field goal percentages and such. Since the season has yet to begin, there are no stats numbers but the update ranks all 351 Division I teams including all ten NEC teams. Last week, Ryan Peters of the Big Apple Buckets blog gave us a first glance of what Kenpom numbers told us what might happen in the NEC this season.
Kenpom ranked LIU Brooklyn eighth in his preseason ranking projections. His LIU Brooklyn schedule projections has the Blackbirds going 13-16 this season and 8-10 in the NEC this season. Some of you might be saying, how can that be?! Eighth?! 8-10 in the NEC?!
Before some of you take this to heart, relax. Basically, Kenpom usually data from recent past seasons but especially last season to help rank teams. Last season, LIU finished the season ranked in the bottom 300 in offensive efficiency and in the bottom 200 in defensive efficiency. This preseason, Kenpom ranks LIU 253rd in offensive efficiency and 291st in defensive efficiency thus projecting them to have a below average season even though most including the NEC coaches pick LIU to finish somewhere in the top four of the NEC standings.
Kenpom sees LIU going 4-7 in non-conference play with all of their wins coming at home at the Steinberg Wellness Center. His site projects LIU has an over 70% chance to beat Maine and UMass Lowell at home. LIU lowest win percentage projections comes in two non-conference games on the road in which the site gives LIU just an 19% chance to win games at Fordham and at UMass. For prospective, Fordham and UMass are projected to finished second to last and last respectively in the Kenpom’s Atlantic 10 projections.
In NEC play, Kenpom projects most of their conference wins will come at home with LIU winning eight of their nine home games with the exception of a one-point projected loss to Mount St. Mary’s. On the road, it is a different story. Kenpom believes LIU will go winless away from Downtown Brooklyn in NEC play with just the one game at FDU on January 21st, being a close one-point loss. Kenpom projects LIU will lose the rest of their NEC road games by at least four or more points.
Obviously, once the season starts, these projections will begin changing based on how the team plays game-by-game and their resulting statistics. So although Kenpom ranks LIU 278th in the nation among the 351 teams, they can quickly shoot up the rankings with a few what Kenpom will deem as “upset” wins under their belt or fall if they get upset.
I’ll keep track on where LIU is at with their Kenpom rankings as the season goes along.